Tuesday's caucuses critical to US Senate battle in Minnesota

Lost amid the overwhelming media coverage of the 2008 presidential race in Minnesota is the quiet, yet intense, battle between DFL Senate hopefuls for state convention delegates.

"We're chasing 1,400 people," Senate candidate Mike Ciresi told KARE 11 news Friday, "That's what it's about."

Ciresi, the Twin Cities attorney who won a landmark federal case against tobacco companies, is in a three-way race for the endorsement of the state DFL convention in June. All three have pledged to drop out of the race if they don't win that stamp of approval.

"Everybody's agreed to abide by the endorsement," Ciresi remarked, "So it's a fight for the delegates. And this will go right to the convention."

That makes Tuesday's precinct caucuses even more critical to Ciresi and the other two Democrats vying to oppose incumbent Republican Norm Coleman, Al Franken and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. Those caucuses are the only entrance ramp for people who want to become their delegates to the Democratic state convention.

That explains why the volunteers in Ciresi's Saint Paul office were busy mailing out flyers and posters, even though the decisive state convention is more than four months away. It's the same reason Ciresi and Franken launched TV ads in January, and while most known Democrats can expect to receive flyers from Nelson-Pallmeyer.

"You're meeting with delegates," said Ciresi, "You're meeting with the people that have gone to the convention, been committed to getting Democrats elected for the last ten years."

Franken, the political satirist and author who first gained national prominence as actor and writer on Saturday Night Live, was on the campaign trail in northern Minnesota Friday. But his headquarters, just down the street from Ciresi's in Saint Paul, was also buzzing with activity.

"First you stuff them, and then we've got labels there, stamps and sealers so you can seal it all up," a staff member explained to one of the volunteers.

They were assembling packets for their precinct captains and preparing a new round of flyers. The campaign concedes most people will be drawn to DFL caucuses to take part in the Clinton-Obama contest. The goal is to get them to stay after they've voted in the presidential poll and vie to be convention delegates or alternates.

The straw poll only determines the level of support for the respective presidential candidates, but not the actual human beings who will move on to the second round. Those selected at the precinct level must compete at the state senate district convention, then a county convention, and finally a congressional district convention in order to arrive as a delegate to the state convention.

"The caucuses matter," Franken's communications director Andy Barr told KARE 11, "If you want to be part of picking the next senator and you want to be part of the movement that gets him to Washington you need to go out and caucus on Tuesday the 5th."

He quickly glanced at the wall full of Franken campaign signs behind him and added, "And become a delegate for, I hope, Al Franken."

With an influx of first-time caucus goers anticipated the Franken campaign created a "how to" web video explaining how people can move on to the next level in the delegate process. It takes a humorous approach to the sometimes confusing "sub-caucus" process that propels delegate want-to-be's to the second round.

"In some precincts," Barr explained, "You just have to show up to get picked as a delegate to the next round, say the state senate district convention or the county convention. But in the larger precincts it will be pretty competitive."

But Barr said the campaign hopes to create a new group of activists, who will see the process as more accessible than they thought.

"We want them to have a sense of what's going to happen and be excited about coming back every time."

And, as Washington University political analyst Steven Smith told KARE 11, there is no other pathway to becoming a state convention delegate. Candidates can't afford to ignore the precincts.

"Unless you have lots of supporters coming out as delegates from these precinct caucuses you don't have a chance in June," Smith said Friday.

What makes it even more daunting for the senate candidates is that the delegate slots in each precinct will be divied up based on the outcome of the Clinton-Obama poll in that precinct.

"Delegates to the next level have to be selected in proportion to the outcome on that presidential preference poll," Smith explained.

"A Ciresi or a Franken or a Nelson-Pallmeyer would want to dominate the outcome by getting a large number of their supporters elected on both the Obama and Clinton tickets onto the next level."

That's where the grassroots organizing comes into play, Smith offered.

"Just how they can do that is a little unclear and will depend on the skill of their leadership in the caucuses."

He said there's "reasonable speculation" that Clinton's backers are more likely to go with Ciresi, while Obama's disproportionately support Franken. And yet Ciresi's most high profile endorser is Congresswoman Betty McCollum, who is an outspoken Barack Obama ally.

As Franken's Andy Barr put it, "I think that Obama people and Clinton people, and frankly Franken people of all shapes and sizes, are really change people. And they're excited people who want to see a new political culture in Washington."

Ciresi agreed all the potential delegates to the state convention delegates are interested in change.

"Our campaign slogan is 'It's time to change the norm in Washington.' That hits both things, not just Norm Coleman but what's going on in Washington at the present time."

If it's all about courting 1,400 future state convention delegates why all the money spent on TV ads that will be seen by millions?

Smith says the huge anticipated turnout makes it difficult for campaigns to predict exactly who will show up that night.

"You end up spending a lot of money on advertising to reach mainly people who will not be attending. But it's in hopes that you'll motivate some of your own supporters to get out to those caucuses."

By John Croman, KARE 11 News

Check out our KARE family of Web sites:
	takeKARE		Metromix
	Moms Like Me		Minnesota Bound
	Showcase Minnesota