Pawlenty's VP prospects unclear despite McCain's rise

As Senator John McCain's friend and most high profile campaign volunteer, Governor Tim Pawlenty can't avoid the question about taking the number two spot on the GOP ticket.

"Could you turn McCain down if he asked you to run with him?" asked a reporter at the State Capitol on Tuesday.

"I've answered this question many, many times," the Governor laughed as if he thought the question had been settled years ago.

But, as one of McCain's national co-chairs, Pawlenty has devoted much of his liesure time to stumping for the Arizona Senator in primary states. Now that McCain's nomination appears inevitable the VP question looms even larger.

"Could you turn him down?" the reporter, undeterred, asked again.

"I'll just repeat what I've said over and over again," Pawlenty said, "I'm only helping Senator McCain because I believe he's a great man who would make a great president particularly in these times."

Now that Mitt Romney has departed the race, McCain will quite likely be in the market for a running mate later this year. But some political experts argue McCain will not be knocking on Pawlenty's door.

"I don't think he's necessarily locked in as the vice presidential candidate," Hamline University's David Schultz told KARE 11 Thursday.

Professor Schultz contends that McCain will be looking for a more conservative politician to join him on the ticket.

"He's got to find some candidate who can appeal to both the Christian evangelical base, and to the Romney conservatives," said Schultz, "It's not so clear that Tim Pawlenty does that."

But Brian Sullivan, who co-chaired the Romney effort in this state and serves as a Republican National Committeeman, believes Pawlenty's conservative credentials are intact.

"He's still on the short list," said Sullivan, "He's a great candidate, a good conservative, a well-spoken person, an attractive guy, and he would be a great addition to the ticket."

In 2002 Sullivan battled Pawlenty for the Republican nomination for governor, in a knock down, drag out fight that went into the wee hours of the morning. But when it was over Sullivan vowed to get behind Pawlenty and immediately donate money to his campaign.

Sullivan also believes the Republican Party may still need Pawlenty for geographic reasons.

"Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin combined count for about as many electoral votes as Ohio," said Sullivan, "If Pawlenty could help pull those into the Republican fold that could make all the difference. And that's part of the calculation they'll be doing."

Geography clearly played a role in the party's decision to hold its 2008 convention in Saint Paul. But David Schultz wonders if the GOP will be willing to stick to that "Minnesota strategy" when it comes to picking a running mate for John McCain.

"Do you want to put the convention in Minnesota and put the Republican governor on the ticket and hope those are going to deliver you 10 electoral votes?" Schultz asked rhetorically, "That's an awful lot of energy being committed just to pick up one state."

And Schultz points out that the Governor wasn't able to deliver Minnesota to McCain on Super Tuesday, who lost in the Republican caucuses here to Mitt Romney.

"If you're not going to have much impact in delivering Minnesota, why do they put him on the ticket?"

Hours before the caucuses Tuesday Pawlenty predicted McCain wouldn't do as well in that forum as he does in opinion polls.

"Senator McCain has led the polls of Republicans in Minnesota but he is probably not going to do as well with the much smaller subgroup of Republicans who attend the caucuses."

He noted that McCain's effort in the state had been "largely a volunteer operation" as opposed to Romney's, which included paid advertising and a rally featuring the candidate himself.

Among the others often mentioned as possible McCain running mates is Florida's Governor Charlie Crist, who endorsed McCain and propelled him to victory in that state's primary.

Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn is also likely to get some serious consideration too, according to Brian Sullivan.

Either way John McCain has nearly seven months to make up his mind. And in politics that's an eternity. A lot can, and probably will, happen between now the start of the convention Labor Day weekend.

By John Croman, KARE 11 News

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