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Polls: Obama moving ahead in battlegrounds and with women
It's five weeks until Election Day, numbers can change, and polls are just snapshots of where the race stands. That said, new poll numbers released Wednesday gave Democrats a reason to feel good about where things stand heading into the home stretch. A poll released by CNN and Time puts Barack Obama ahead of John McCain in Minnesota by 11 points, 54-43 percent. The poll of likely voters has an error margin of +/- 3.5-4 percent. Nationwide, Obama is leading McCain by seven points, 50-43, and Obama hit the 50 percent threshold for the first time in the general election campaign. What's more, women appear to be flocking to Obama. The same poll has him up by 17 points among all women, 55-38, and Obama is leading by three points among white women, 48-45, a demographic George W. Bush won by 11 points four years ago. The national polls have a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. Political analyst Larry Jacobs, the director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute, says the statistical dead heat among white women is significant. "Sarah Palin's selection had mobilized the Republican Party and had appealed to women more broadly, particularly white women," he said of John McCain's running mate. "We now have a reversal of that situation." The last couple of weeks haven't been kind to McCain, who lost points as the economic crisis escalated and polls also suggested voters were not impressed with his performance in the first presidential debate. In Kansas City Wednesday, McCain struck a gentler, non-partisan tone. "Following Sept. 11, our national leaders came together at a time of crisis," he said. "Now, with this (bailout) measure, we have another chance to come together to prove that Washington is once again capable of leading this country." It's also looking rougher for McCain in battleground states. In addition to Minnesota, the CNN/Time poll showed Obama beating McCain in Florida (51-47), Missouri (49-48), Nevada (51-47), and Virginia (53-44). A Quinnipiac University poll also had Obama ahead in Florida (51-34), Ohio (50-42), and Pennsylvania (54-39). That polls margin of error was 3.4 percentage points. But Jacobs cautioned Obama's numbers are "soft" and said Democrats should not get complacent. "It only takes a national security emergency, or the whole crisis over Wall Street and the financial sector to begin to calm out, for Barack Obama's lead to shrink and for John McCain to come back. As for Minnesota, where McCain has been spending more time and much more money on TV, Obama suggested he'll be back for a visit later this month. "I will say that we're trying to spread the electoral map, and we're going into a lot of non-traditional states," he told reporters in Wisconsin, explaining why he's been in places like Virginia and North Carolina in September - states that typically are considered red. "In October, we'll make sure to get to Minnesota," he said. "We'll make sure that we're campaigning actively."
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