Are changes in Senate race numbers 'statistically dubious'?

One thing is certain: the final margin in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race is not certain.

On Wednesday morning Sen. Norm Coleman led Al Franken by 725 votes. By Wednesday night the lead was 477 votes. By Thursday night it was 336. As of Monday morning, it's 204.

Coleman's campaign manager has called the changes "statistically dubious and improbable."

But Hamline University professor David Schultz says the changes are not unusual because counties are double checking for errors right now.

"If you look at past elections in Minnesota, the difference of what happens on election day and what's eventually certified can be, in some situations, differences of several thousand votes," Schultz says.

 Franken's campaign handed out statistics Saturday demonstrating that point.

 According to the handout, in numerous state races over the past ten years, election day totals often varied from final certified tallies.

 But the races were never close enough to change the final result.

Franken's campaign points to 2002, when Coleman won his Senate seat. Between election day and the time the vote was certified, opponent Walter Mondale cut into Coleman's lead, but the gains were not enough to overcome Coleman's lead.

Another example is the 2006 Senate race. Between election day and final certification, Amy Klobuchar's margin of victory grew by 2,854 votes.

 Again, such gains were irrelevant because Klobuchar was the clear winner.

But Schultz says the Coleman-Franken vote is different. "In a race where you have them essentially tied at 42 percent ... these slight fluctuations can make a difference," he says.

Coleman's campaign acknowledges that numbers will change after election day.

But Mark Drake, Coleman's communications director, questions why the numbers are consistently going against Coleman. "No one disputes that numbers jump around, but they don't usually go against one candidate," Drake says.

 Coleman's campaign is using Minnesota's open records law to ask the state and all 87 counties for data from election night, and records related to ballot security and revisions made since the election.

Counties must certify their results Monday, then send their results to the state by Friday.

 The state will certify those results on Nov. 18, then the statewide recount will start.

 Counties must submit their recount results to the state by Dec. 5. The state canvassing board will start meeting on Dec. 16 to rule on disputed ballots.

Click here for updated results.

By Joe Fryer, KARE 11 News   Read Joe's Blog

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