If the recession is likely over, what's next?

Every month consumer spending numbers, unemployment numbers and numbers most of us have no clue about all come due and give economic experts a sort of indicator of where the country stands.

"From a technical perspective the recession is very likely over," said Federal Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The latest numbers from August show a surge in retail sales.

More people spent more money on more than just the essentials last month, so much so, sales rose at the fastest pace in 3 1/2 years.

It's reason enough for some to declare the recession over, although nearly one out of ten workers still remain without jobs.

"Unfortunately unemployment will be slow to come down," said Bernanke. "It will come down but it may take some time."

During a recession unemployment numbers are typically the last to recover, once that happens, it quite possibly could be payback time.

"I would expect interest rates to go up at some point," said Dr. David Vang of St. Thomas University. "I'm not sure when, but probably in a year or two were going to see some concern about interest rates."

In the government's attempt to prevent a deep recession, taxpayers doled out billions.

Vang says, if nothing is done, the dispersal of that much money can catch up with you.

Once the economy begins to grow, the Federal Reserve will have to switch gears and flip another switch.

"And try to cut back on the money supply and keep inflation from happening," said Vang. "And that's a very, very unpopular thing to do. It would be kind of like hosting a party and being the guy who takes away the punch bowl when things are starting to get fun."

The recession may technically be over, but the road to a complete economic recovery is literally a long and winding one.

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