ST. PAUL, Minn. – Stop, drop and poll.
The biannual bombardment of political polls is underway, and some folks may find themselves cynical about the practice of public polling after the 2016 presidential election swing-and-a-miss by most pollsters.
In case you forgot, of the 19 major polls taken in November that year before the election, one had then-candidate Donald Trump winning by two points.
The other 18 had Hillary Clinton ahead by anywhere from one to eight points, according to Real Clear Politics.
President Trump won by more than 70 electoral votes. Clinton took a ballot beating, and so did public pollsters.
“No one has a crystal ball,” said University of Minnesota Walter F. and Joan Mondale Chair for Political Studies Larry Jacobs. “We don't listen and believe the weatherman every time he’s taking to us, but we want to know generally what kind of climate we are waking into.”
Polls rarely move voters one direction or another, but Jacobs says if a poll is close, it can drive more people to vote.
Jacobs reminds us that political polls are snapshots of now, not tomorrow, and they can change quickly.
For instance, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll taken in August said Democrats had more enthusiasm for the midterm elections than Republicans, by a 63% - 52% margin.
The same poll taken today shows Democrats leading by just four percent, 72% - 68%.
Jacobs says that’s what two months and one huge event, like the Judge Kavanaugh hearings, can do.
As for poll accuracy? No poll is perfect, but Jacobs says to trust the average.
“The best way to consume polls is to not rely on one polling organization or any single poll. You can go to Real Clear Politics or other sites online and it gives you the average so you can see the herd of polls and a sense of how the race is breaking down,” said Jacobs.
If you take that rationale and apply it to the 2016 presidential election, Real Clear Politics shows the average of all polls had Clinton up 3.2%. Looking at the popular vote, Clinton won by 2.1%.
Jacobs says the error occurred when too few polls were conducted in key swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan, and pollsters underestimated how many undecided votes would go toward Trump.