MINNEAPOLIS - So, don't panic or anything, but it might rain or even snow a little next Tuesday in the Twin Cities, according to our team of meteorologists.
A slight snowfall in early November is hardly unusual or unprecedented.
But next Tuesday is Election Day — an enormously consequential midterm Election Day, no less. With every vote so critical, it's not outrageous to wonder whether a little precipitation would have a measurable impact on voting patterns next week in the state of Minnesota.
Luckily for you, this topic has been debated again, and again, and again, and again (you get the point) over the years. It seems we've been trying to answer this question since the beginning of our country's political history.
What, exactly, is the impact of weather on voter turnout and voter decisions?
In Minnesota, voter turnout is typically among the highest in the nation, regardless of weather conditions. According to the Minnesota Weather Almanac, written by local climatologist Mark Seeley, "foul weather appears to have little effect on the turnout of steadfast Minnesotans, who traditionally cherish their voting privileges."
In the almanac, Seeley points to the 1936 election, when more than one million Minnesota voters went to the polls despite near-record low temperatures across the state that day. Even in the off-year election of November 1991, Seeley observed that "Minnesota reported a relatively high voter turnout at the local and state election despite an all-day snow with blowing and drifting that made travel slow and cumbersome."
And the next year, in 1992, Minnesota still ranked among the highest in voter turnout despite chilly conditions and a three-day snow "storm" leading into Nov. 3's presidential election. More than eight inches fell at the airport from Nov. 1 to Nov. 3, with more than an inch falling on Election Day itself. Clearly, it didn't seem to impact turnout.
But we all know Minnesotans can handle bad weather.
What about everybody else?
Well, the national research is mixed, and it mostly focuses on presidential elections.
In 2007, three political scientists named Brad Gomez, Thomas Hansford and George Krause published a study with the attention-grabbing title, "The Republicans Should Pray For Rain." These experts from three universities concluded that "rain significantly reduces voter participation by a rate of just less than 1% per inch, while an inch of snowfall decreases turnout by almost .5%. Poor weather is also shown to benefit the Republican party's vote share."
Interestingly enough, that study also concluded that John F. Kennedy would have lost to Richard Nixon in 1960 had the weather been worse in Minnesota and some other states on Election Day.
In 2013, Dr. Anna Bassi at the University of North Carolina published a study with a slightly different focus, tackling the topic of the "effect of weather beyond turnout." In her research, titled "Weather, mood and voting," Bassi concluded that "bad weather depresses individual mood and risk tolerance, i.e.. voters are more likely to vote for the candidate who is perceived to be less risky."
So what will happen in Minnesota next week?
Hard to tell, but, again, let's not panic.
It's only a little rain or snow.