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Poll: Biden holds 6-point lead over Trump in Minnesota

A new KARE 11/MPR News/Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows Biden leads Trump overall, but most decidedly in Hennepin and Ramsey Counties.
Credit: KARE
Former Vice President Joe Biden and President Trump

Former Vice President Joe Biden has a 6% lead over incumbent President Donald Trump in Minnesota, a new KARE 11/MPR News/Star Tribune Minnesota Poll demonstrates.

The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc., surveyed Minnesotans who said they were likely to vote in November.


When asked who they would vote for if the 2020 presidential election were held today, 48% of Minnesota voters said Biden while 42% chose Trump. Two percent chose other candidates and 8% were undecided.

Besides political party, urban and rural areas marked the widest disparity. While 70% of Hennepin and Ramsey County residents support Biden, Trump polled at 48% in the metro suburbs compared to Biden's 41%. Trump held a larger lead in southern and northern Minnesota with 53% and 54% respectively, compared to 36% for Biden in both.

Men were more likely to support Trump, with 48% compared to 36% of women. Woman likewise supposed Biden at 52% compared to 44% of men.

Unsurprisingly, 85% of Democrats said they'll vote for Biden and 81% of Republicans are for Trump. Among Independent voters or those who described themselves as "other," 44% chose Biden over Trump's 41%. Twelve percent were undecided.

Biden holds a significant lead among young people, with 63% of 18- to 34-year-olds. Trump only received support from 21% of that age group. Twelve percent of those young people are undecided.

The candidates are more evenly split among the rest of voters by age group: 45% Biden and 44% Trump (35-49), 47% Trump and 45% Biden (50-64). Among those 65 and up, Trump holds a slightly larger lead with 49% compared to Biden's 46%.

College graduates are more likely to vote for Biden at 57%, with 34% pledging support for Trump. Forty-nine percent of people with no college degree chose Trump and 40% chose Biden.

Non-white people were much more likely to vote for Biden, with 59% compared to Trump's 25%. Twelve percent were undecided. Biden also led among white people, with 47% to Trump's 44%.


When Minnesota voters were asked what they think of Donald Trump's job performance as president, 52% said they disapprove and 43% approve. Five percent are unsure.

Among those in the Twin Cities metro - Hennepin and Ramsey County - Trump's approval rating is 25%, with 71% disapproving. The metro suburbs were split at 46%, with 8% unsure. In southern Minnesota Trump's approval rating is 52%, and in northern Minnesota it's 60%.

Men were more likely to approve of Trump than women, at 49% versus 38%. Fifty-six percent of Minnesota women said they disapprove, compared to 47% of men.

Of course, political party was the most deciding factor, with 88% of Democrats disapproving and 81% of Republicans approving. Fifteen percent of Republicans disapprove of the president's job performance. On the flip side, 9% of Democrats approve.

Less than 1% of people who said they plan to vote for Biden approve of Trump, with 97% disapproving and 3% unsure. Ninety-three percent of people who plan to vote for Trump said they approve of the president's job performance, 3% disapprove and 4% are not sure.

Independent voters were slightly more likely to disapprove of Trump, with 46%, while 45% approve and 9% are unsure.

Age is a significant factor as well, with 69% of people 18-34 disapproving of the president. Forty-nine percent of those 35-49 disapprove compared to 46% approval. Among those 50-64 Trump has the highest approval rating at 49%. Of adults 65 and up, 49% disapprove compared to 44% approval. Seven percent of those older adults are not sure.

Half of people with no college degree approve of the president, while 45% disapprove and 5% are unsure. Among college grads, 59% disapprove and 36% approve. Again, 5% were unsure.


Voters were asked to choose one public policy area that is the most influential in deciding their vote for president.

Among Trump voters, the single most important issue to consider when deciding on a candidate was the economy and jobs (45%), followed by law and order and crime (29%) and Supreme Court appointments (16%). The poll did take place after the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Sept. 18. 

Beyond that, Trump voters chose health care (7%), coronavirus (1%) and national security and foreign policy (1%) as their top issue. Fewer than 1% of Trump voters chose racial justice and equity, or climate change and the environment.

For those who said they'll vote for Biden, the top issue was racial justice and equity (28%) followed by the coronavirus (20%) and health care (15%). They also chose climate change and the environment (14%), Supreme Court appointments (13%), the economy and jobs (6%) and national security and foreign policy (1%) as their top issues. Fewer than 1% of Biden voters said law and order and crime is their top issue.

Statewide regardless of political candidate, Minnesotans said the issue they're most concerned about is the economy and jobs (23%) followed by racial justice and equity (15%), law and order and crime (14%), Supreme Court appointments (13%), health care (12%), the coronavirus (12%) and climate change and the environment (8%). National security and foreign policy came in at 1% across political parties.

The KARE 11/MPR News/Star Tribune Minnesota Poll was conducted via phone by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, surveying 800 registered Minnesota voters by phone (both landline and cell) from Sept. 21-23, 2020. 

The poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points. That means there is a 95% probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if every single voter were surveyed. The margin of error is higher for subgroups like age and gender.

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