MINNEAPOLIS — Thursday is the traditional deadline for the Census Bureau to turn over 2020 population data to the president. And those numbers could hold bad news for Minnesota when it comes to our political clout in Washington D.C.
The most recent projections show Minnesota on the verge of losing one of its eight seats in the US House. The state's population has grown by more than 300,000 since 2010 but that may not be enough to warrant all eight of our seats in Congress.
The Census Bureau's latest prediction has Minnesota falling 25,554 people short of the number it would take to justify claiming eight of the 435 seats in the House. Preliminary numbers will be plugged into a formula, which currently ranks our eighth seat at 437.
If we're left with just seven US House seats the district boundary maps will change dramatically within the state. And Minnesota will lose some of its influence in the Electoral College, dropping from 10 votes to nine.
Susan Brower, Minnesota's State Demographer, is holding out hope that we'll make the cut after all of the numbers fall into place.
"I’ll remind you that in 2010 we were below that 435 mark and held on to the seat by just about 8,000 people," Brower remarked.
"So, it’s very possible with error that’s built into the current estimate, with error that may be built into the census count itself, and with these other things that might be up in the air right about who’s included in the count, that we’re close enough to keep an eighth seat for another decade."
One of things that remains up in the air is whether undocumented immigrants are included in the count that will be used for apportionment of the seats. President Trump has said people with that immigrant status should be removed from the total, which would break with historic precedent.
But, by the time the reapportionment is finalized in April President-elect Joe Biden will be in the White House and may have the power to reverse President Trump's decision.
It's not even clear at this point if the Census Bureau will deliver final numbers to the president on time by the traditional deadline of December 31, Brower said.
"The Census Bureau has indicated it’s likely to be late with that. Although, they’ve been kind of quiet about that lately. So, a lot of us are just watching to see."
On the bright side, nobody could fault the census effort in Minnesota to count as many people as possible. This state finished first in voluntary compliance with the 2020 Census.
"We had 75 percent of Minnesotans respond to the census on their own without additional follow-up," Brower explained.
"And when that happens, we get a better, more accurate count. We’ve done everything we could possibly to ensure that count is fair and accurate."
Minnesota is one of many northern and eastern states that have lost seats in Congress since the 1930s, as population growth shifted mainly toward southern and western states.