In case you haven't heard, there's a presidential election in the works. Donald J. Trump against whomever eventually becomes the Democratic nominee. While it's a long way off, the polls are already coming out, pitting potential candidates against our current president.
Not to be left behind, The Star Tribune just released its own. In it all three democratic front runners and Senator Amy Klobuchar beat out Trump in a head-to-head-match-up. But, do we even trust polls anymore? And what can we take from this kind of information so early in the game?
“I think polls are still important, but it's important to emphasize that they are only a snapshot in time, that they have a margin of error, and in 2016 pollsters learned some pretty important lessons, they underestimated support for Trump,” says Professor Kathryn Pearson.
But Professor Pearson says the pollsters have worked to correct those mistakes. So, can we trust them now? And what are we even learning this early in the process?
"As viewers think about looking at polls, it’s really important to look at poll aggregators, sort of taking into consideration many polls at once, and polling averages, and not relying on any one single poll,” she says.
All that said, let’s point out a single poll anyway. The Star Tribune released new numbers today, 800 Minnesota registered voters who were asked who they'd pick in a head-to-head matchup against Trump. Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders all beat out the President. Not great news for Trump who aims to flip the state that hasn't voted red since 1972, but good news for the democrats and especially Senator Amy Klobuchar. Klobuchar finished ahead of President Trump by the widest margin. 55% to 38%.
“I think the key for her is talking about these results in a way that shows that she did get that independent support in Minnesota, and perhaps even some republican support, and try to persuade voters in other states that she can do that in other places as well,” says Pearson.
Regardless of who ultimately gets the Democratic Nomination, another poll says Trump will still win.
Moody's Analytics’ model has only missed once, in you guessed it, 2016. This time around it says short of record turnout, the economy will be the deciding factor, and that means a Trump re-election.
So, what's a voter to do? Well, take everything with a grain of salt, consider your source when it comes to information, and when you finally get in the voting booth…make up your own mind.