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As rain and snow mount, risk of spring flooding increases in Minnesota

The NWS Twin Cities now ranks snowpack levels "above normal," meaning there's a higher chance of flooding when the snow eventually melts.

MINNEAPOLIS — After significant rain and snow events in February, the National Weather Service Twin Cities now says there's an increased risk of flooding this spring across most of the area.

Craig Schmidt, a senior service hydrologist for NWS Twin Cities, said the recent precipitation has added an inch or more of water to the snowpack. In some areas, snowpack levels are double the amount of an average year, which could become a problem depending on the speed of the melting this spring.

"In the last two weeks, the outlook has changed a bit," Schmidt said. "It's pretty widespread this year. The entire Upper Mississippi, Minnesota basins, even Chippewa and Eau Claire, all of these places have the potential."

According to Schmidt, these areas have a 50 to 75 percent chance of reaching at least minor flood stage.

"So far, the threat for major flooding will really depend on what type of rain or warm temperatures we get later this spring," Schmidt said.

NWS Twin Cities currently predicts a slightly cooler March, which could intensify any potential flooding.

"That means we could hold onto the snow a lot longer than we might ordinarily. The longer we hold onto the snowpack the more susceptible we become to a quick warmup or spring storm," Schmidt said, "and of course, that could make things worse."

On the flip side, all this rain and snow is helping the drought.

"It has improved drastically," Schmidt said. "Where we were looking at some severe and extreme drought in a lot of the area, we're now looking at just abnormally dry, and in the next few weeks, as forecast, we might even get rid of the drought completely."

As for flooding, we'll just have to wait and see.

"The snowpack is the fuel for spring flooding. Then, what we have to look at is, what is going to cause the melt?" Schmidt said. "If we are to add more snow, we're adding more fuel. If we hold onto that snow until we warm up really fast, that could cause things to melt a lot faster and could cause a lot more problems."

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