MINNEAPOLIS — With fall officially here, political yard signs are as prolific as spring rabbits.
But do they work?
Yes, but not as well as some people might think, according to a study conducted by Columbia University.
Donald Green PhD is lead author of a 2016 study on the effectiveness of yard signs.
“We found they boosted the vote share of the advertising candidate by about 1.7 percentage points,” Green said. “If a candidate were to get 48.3 percentage points ordinarily if they don't put the lawn sign there, they would be boosted up to 50 if they do.”
In the south Minneapolis neighborhood surrounding Lake Harriet, Biden signs dominate the streetscape. But drive up I-94 northwest of the metro, and Trump signs vastly outnumber those for Biden.
“I don't mind seeing them at all,” Katie Lee said on her walk around Lake Harriet. “I feel like it's a good take on where your neighborhood stands.”
On his own walk around the lake, Allan Schwartz agreed. “If you're a Trump supporter and you're driving up north you're getting encouraged. If you're a Biden supporter and you see them here, then you're encouraged with that.”
Green’s research focused on state and local elections, not a presidential race, where, he suspects, yard signs would have even less influence.
“It's almost like a Rorschach test, an ink spot test. If you talk to people who love lawn signs, they work,” Green said.
Compared to other forms of advertising, yard signs are relatively cheap. They could also be a difference maker in a whisker-close election.
“Candidates certainly believe that they work,” Green said. “In order to verify that, just Google something like ‘candidate caught stealing lawn signs.’ They obviously think that opponents are getting something out of their signs.”
Like fall leaves, you could even argue they're beautiful.
“That's the beauty of the United States,” Lake Harriet walker Camila Pastrana said. “You have the right to vote, the right to express yourself.”