New poll shows Palin energizes voters - on both sides

If history is any guide, voters will be thinking more about Barack Obama and John McCain than Joe Biden and Sarah Palin this November.

That hasn't been the case this past week.

"The rule in presidential politics is that the vice presidential candidate rarely makes a difference when it comes to Election Day," said Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance and the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute.

"Palin may be the exception to that rule," he added.

What's different about Palin is the enormous reaction to her, which is reflected in the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

When 860 registered voters were asked what impact Palin will have on their vote, 34 percent said her nomination makes them more likely to vote for McCain; 25 percent said they would be less likely to vote for him. Forty percent said picking Palin makes no difference either way.

The poll's margin of error is +/- 3.3 percent.

When voters were asked the same question about Joe Biden, 24 percent said Biden makes them more likely to vote for Obama; 16 percent said less likely, and 58 percent said Biden makes no difference either way.

"Sarah Palin has polarized America," Jacobs said.

And the question about Palin, who still hasn't answered any questions from reporters but has an interview scheduled with ABC's Charles Gibson later this week, ultimately is: Will she help or hurt?

A TV ad running in Minnesota and elsewhere touts Palin's maverick credentials but has been repeatedly questioned by fact-checkers who say she flip-flopped. Palin supported the bridge, which became a national symbol of wasteful spending, until Congress turned against it. Then she withdrew her support.

"Some people are having very mixed reactions to her," said Kathryn Pearson, a political scientist at the University of Minnesota. "And we're seeing really partisan differences in these reactions -- partisan differences that, in fact, trump gender differences."

Either way, it appears to be a debate playing out mostly outside of Minnesota, where the tight Senate contest between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken will likely draw more attention and ad money than the presidential race.

An average of polls taken in Minnesota gives Obama a 7-point lead here.

"If the (presidential) race stays as it is, I suspect the candidates on both tickets will devote their time and resources to more competitive states," Pearson said.

That doesn't mean viewers in Minnesota won't see Obama or McCain ads on TV. It just means the candidates aren't expected to buy a lot of airtime locally.

The Senate race, on the other hand, already is the most expensive race in the country. The candidates have raised $28 million so far. They've spent $16.5 million.

By Scott Goldberg, KARE 11 News Read Scott's Blog

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