CHANHASSEN, Minn. — At the midway point of meteorological winter, Minnesota finally feels like Minnesota.
Just don't expect the trend to continue.
"We've had great ice-making temperatures in the last week, but not prolonged ice-making temperatures," said Joe Calderone, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. "And there is a warm-up in the forecast again, so can that ice persist? That's where a lot of the questions and concerns seep in."
Even before winter began, Calderone and other meteorologists and climatologists anticipated a mild winter due to El Nino conditions. Months later, it's been even milder than expected.
"At MSP (airport) it's been the most mild on record," Calderone said, "At least according to NOAA's Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index, which factors in temperature and snowfall."
Even though the meteorological winter is only halfway over, Calderone says that if you look at what happened during other winters that started similarly, the trend should continue.
"The five seasons closest to this score so far, they all just project into the mild region," he said.
Though it has been colder than average for a few days recently, the upcoming forecast for the end of January, which is typically the coldest average stretch in the Twin Cities, looks to be bringing mild weather by the end of the weekend.
"Saturday will be the last day that we're going to have temperatures this cold, for at least the next week," Calderone said. "By Wednesday, Thursday, Friday we could have upper 30s. And Just staying there through the rest of the week."
That could mean even more uncertainty for outdoor winter fun in the short term, but in the long term, he says Minnesotans always have to be prepared.
"Of course, we could still have another large snow-making system," he said. "Because we've got February, March and April to go and we all know what can happen here."
Just don't bet on it.
Kent Erdahl: "Back in September we did a report on the fact that the Farmer's Almanac was projecting a colder than normal, snowier than normal winter. The National Weather Service and NOAA said not so fast, this is an El Nino winter. I'm giving you the opportunity to dunk on the Farmer's Almanac. Do you want to say I told you so?"
Joe Calderone: "No. I'm not going to do that. The bottom line is that this is where the prolonged science and the expertise of those climate prediction center forecasters come in. We knew this is the type of winter we were likely going to have. Maybe not necessarily the details back in September, but overall.
Erdahl: "You expected mild, but not necessarily this mild."
Calderone: "Correct and maybe not necessarily this little amount of snow."
Erdahl: "You're taking the high road."
Joe: "I'm going to take the high road. Yes. I'm taking the above-normal road."
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