EAGAN, Minn. - While acknowledging the folly of trying to put a letter grade on the recently concluded NFL Draft, one must also acknowledge the fact that a team’s fan base wants to know how that team did.... and they want to know right NOW.
It’s been proven (time and time again) that you really have to wait a number of years to see how a team’s draft class plays out. But, when your team is coming off a 13-3 season that ended just one game short of the Super Bowl, the Vikings fan base went into the draft hoping to see their team take tangible strides toward accomplishing that elusive goal.
So how did GM Rick Spielman and the Vikings brain trust do? That depends on who you ask, but at least 'initially', nobody other than Spielman seems overly enthusiastic about it.
NFL.com gave the Vikings their highest grade, but then again... they gave EVERY team their highest grades. On NFL.com the Vikings received a respectable A- based on the expected immediate contribution of 1st round CB Mike Hughes and the potential contributions of 2nd round OT Brian O’Neill and 5th rounders TE Tyler Conklin and K Daniel Carlson.
SBNation.com gave the Vikings a B+, based mainly on the same criteria, while USA Today (the same publication that picked EVERY 2017 division winner WRONG, and had the Vikings pegged at 9-7.... OK, so did I) gave them the lowest grade in the NFC North with a C-.
My point is, initial beauty seems to be in the eye of the beholder, and at first glance Viking fans may not be smitten with the class of 2018.
I can’t blame them.
Going into the draft everybody was saying how much the Vikings needed to upgrade their offensive line. So, you can understand the disappointment when the Vikes not only failed to grab a marquee O-lineman, they selected Pitts' Brian O’Neill, described as “being a bit of a reach” and “has the athletic skills to be a left tackle at some point in this league. It may take some time and he needs to get stronger.”
Not exactly rave reviews.
Draft analysts actually seem to be a bit more enthusiastic about the 'other' offensive lineman the Vikings took, guard Colby Gossett of Appalachian State, who was selected in the 6th round. Gossett, who was valued by some to be as high as a 3rd round prospect, is described as being the opposite of O’Neill in that he is said to have brute strength but limited mobility. “A great value in the 6th, and a player that could wind up being a key depth piece and a spot starter in the future,” said one pundit.
“Depth piece”? “Spot starter in the future”? Not exactly high praise.
With rave reviews like that there’s not a lot of reason for Kirk Cousins, or Viking fans for that matter, to get too worked-up about when it comes to the Vikings effort to upgrade the offensive line in the draft.
Actually, you can say the same thing when it comes to the Vikings offensive draft haul. Or, lack thereof.
The Vikes traded up in the 5th round to grab Conklin, the tight-end out of Central Michigan. Analysts believe Conklin, a converted basketball player, can provide depth and perhaps contribute immediately in the TE-friendly system favored by new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo. Here's a concern: Conklin missed the first five games last season due to injury, and those who scouted him as a junior said he never seemed to regain the speed he had displayed the previous year.
Perhaps no pick has a greater opportunity to make a bigger offensive contribution this season than Conklin's fellow 5th rounder Daniel Carlson, a kicker out of Auburn who the Vikings actually moved-up to get. Prior to the draft Spielman had said there would be competition at kicker, but with incumbent Kai Forbath working on a one-year, un-guaranteed contract the message to Carlson is clear: The job is yours for the taking.
The Vikings have a history of moving-on once they draft a specialist, and Forbath’s habitual missing of extra-points last season would seem to indicate the job is Carlson’s to lose.
If it seems like I’m being a “Debbie Downer”, and you’re also not excited about what the Vikings did offensively, here comes the rationale to stop from pushing the panic button. Spielman is often accused of not saying anything when he addresses the media. I would argue that this year, in his pre-draft media availability, the Vikings GM actually told us a lot. Spielman insisted you have to look at each draft not just in terms of your immediate team’s needs, but also consider depth (in case of injury) and the future, in terms of what your club can and cannot afford under the salary cap.
Which leads us to defense, and more about what Spielman revealed in his pre-draft commentary.
The Vikings are not only counting on an immediate contribution from Hughes at slot corner, but also as a potential upgrade from Marcus Sherels as a returner... but this is a somewhat dangerous proposition.
Hughes may be more explosive athletically than Sherels, and Sherels is a liability if you actually have to play him in the defensive backfield. That said, you can also count on one hand how many mistakes Sherels has made in his career as a returner. When considering Marcus’ lack of “explosive plays” fans must also remember how dependable he is, because that matters.
The addition of Hughes also figures to impact the future of a couple of previous draft picks. While the Vikings are expected to exercise the 4th year option on Trey Waynes’ contract this week, it could impact whether or not the Vikings sign the still developing Waynes to a long-term deal after the season.
Former 2nd round pick Mackensie Alexander figures to feel a more immediate impact from the addition of Hughes. In two seasons Alexander has been unable to play the position of corner (either outside, or more recently inside) to the level required to keep 39-year old Terence Newman off the field. While it doesn’t appear that Newman will be back this year, if Alexander doesn’t step-up his game significantly he will be relegated to a backup role. No team wants to give-up on a 2nd-rounder with just 2-years of experience, but Alexander has showed few signs he’s making progress in learning Mike Zimmer’s defense.
The other thing that Spielman told us before the draft? That the Vikings value athleticism, preferring to draft players in later rounds who may not provide an immediate impact, but offer great upside at a discount price given time and proper coaching. That means value. Taken at his word, the rest of the Vikings 2018 picks are each walking definitions of Spielman’s draft philosophy.
Fourth rounder Jaylen Holmes played both DT & DE at THE Ohio State University, but projects to provide immediate depth at the “3 Technique” (meaning he will work inside and learn alongside newly acquired and former 1st rounder Sheldon Richardson). The Vikings may count on Holmes to fill that spot at some point, should Richardson be injured or not pan-out as planned.
The 6th round brought DE Ade Arunya,, who is described as a ”major project”, while the Vikings 8th and final selection was used in the 7th round on Cal LB Devante Downs. The good news on Downs is that he is described as a tackling machine, and as a guy who could help right away on special teams. The bad? Downs may not be healthy enough to play football at all after suffering a season-ending knee injury in October. His health at this point appears to be a mystery to everybody outside the Vikings organization.
Spielman doesn't sound at all concerned.
“The theme was sticking with the athletic traits we’re looking for, and relying on this coaching staff to develop this young talent. It gives you a chance to hit on some guys that can be pretty special”, Spielman imparted. “We talk about it all the time in the draft meetings: This guy may be a better football player today, but this guy has such a high ceiling, and our coaches are so eager to work with these athletes. To me, that’s when you get an opportunity to hit on a guy that can be something.”
So, rather than assign this draft class a letter grade, let’s take the Vikings GM at his word and trust that The Purple have added a number of guys "that can be something”. Long term that may mean something, but for a fan base looking for this team to build on the off-season additions of Cousins and Richardson, I doubt it was what they were hoping to hear.
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