MINNEAPOLIS — As 2024 arrives, voters in Minnesota and across the nation are looking at a dramatic political landscape, that's playing out in the courts and the campaign trail. In fact, this coming year is shaping up to be one of the most tumultuous 12 months in the nation's history.
A former president who still hasn't conceded his defeat is running for his old job, all the while facing an array of criminal indictments in several states. And he's leading in all the polls.
"There's a lot of things we can't just put easily into a calculation," political analyst David Schultz of Hamline University told KARE 11.
"With Donald Trump, we've got the variables of criminal trials. We've got the variables of potentially two Supreme Court decisions that could affect the presidential election."
The first big test for Republican presidential wannabes will be the Iowa Caucuses Jan. 15. Former President Donald Trump leads his GOP rivals by more than 20 points in all of the polls, so his challengers are now fiercely battling for second place.
"The other Republicans are hoping to make a showing, so they might say, 'I came in second, did better than I thought, defied expectations and I'm still in it'."
President Biden's job performance rating numbers don't bode well for him, and in any other era would give an incumbent room for pause. But his campaign is unfolding at the same time that former President Trump is embroiled in a host of civil and criminal court cases.
Some of those legal battles will determine whether his name appears on every ballot, while others could lead to fines and even jail time.
"Those cases could be going to trial during the campaign. If there's a conviction it might happen very close to Election Day, which would be a true 'October surprise' if you will," Schultz remarked.
Many polls have shown Americans wish they had other candidates to choose from in 2024, rather than a rematch of 2020.
"It's a race that will produce a lot of very reluctant voters," Steven Schier, professor emeritus of political science at Carleton College, told KARE.
"Neither of the likely nominees, Trump or Biden, are really well received by the public now."
Minnesota's Dean Phillips faces his first test in New Hampshire, where he'll try to outdo a grassroots write-in campaign for Biden who didn't enter the race there.
"In 1968, Eugene McCarthy ran a strong challenge against his fellow Democrat President Johnson, which helped to force LBJ out of the race, so Dean Phillips is hoping to repeat that feat," Schier said.
But, unlike McCarthy, Phillips isn't challenging the incumbent from the left.
"Dean Phillips is basically running on Joe Biden's personal qualities, saying he's too old to be president."
5th District Congresswoman Ilhan Omar will face yet another Democratic primary challenge. The field of opponents already sets her up for a rematch with her 2022 primary opponent Don Samuels, plus new DFL candidates Sarah Gad and Tim Peterson.
"There are at least three other Democrats challenging Ilhan Omar this time, so Don Samuels does not have a one-on-one race with Omar. And that may complicate his ability to upset her in the primary."
U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar will seek a fourth term in 2024, and so far, no major Republican candidates have stepped forward to challenge her. Schultz said Republican donors are probably more likely to spend their money on races that are more winnable in other states.
At the State Capitol, we'll see a battle for control of the Minnesota House. Democrats currently hold a 70 to 64 majority in the House, and Republicans are bound and determined to undo the DFL trifecta ushered into power in the 2022 election.
Members of the Minnesota Senate aren't up for reelection until 2026, but the GOP are hoping to go back to divided government in 2025.
"If Republicans take over the statehouse, all the bargaining about public policy will change in a very radical way in 2025," Schier said.
In Minneapolis and St. Paul, left-leaning progressive city councils will move more to the left in 2024. That could have implications for rent stabilization policies as well as public safety spending priorities in both cities.
For the first time in history, St. Paul will be led by an all-female council. All seven members are under the age of 40, and the majority of them identify as persons of color.
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